Showing posts with label CapEx. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CapEx. Show all posts

Saturday, March 1, 2008

Let the Games Begin!

With the WSE's announcement that it is leaving the Linden Dollar behind and going to trade solely in World Internet Currency units (WICs), the competition has begun for companies to be from the WSE to other exchanges. Already two have jumped ship: MAI and HOT, and one has sworn allegiance: DDE. As for the other side of the coin, to my knowledge two of the exchanges, VSTEX and CapEx are offering incentives for companies to switch. VSTEX is offering 10% off their IPO/relising fees, and CapEx is offering 100% off of them, both for a limited time.

It's an interesting battle, really. DDE's decision to stay surprised me greatly, as I would have thought that a business being conducted in Linden dollars, established in Linden dollars, and (until now) paying dividends until Linden dollars would have wanted to stay away from changing currencies and paying loads of transaction fees in order to bring any kind of value to their shareholders. But Delicious tends to know what she's doing, so maybe she's got something up her sleeve that I don't know about.

The question in my mind is how many of the WSE's 42 companies will jump ship in the next month. I really can't understand any retail or land company wanting to stay on the WSE now. Scripters and investment firms could still survive in WICs, since the scripters can simply request payment in USD and the investment firms should be savvy enough in whatever currency. I had originally thought the flight would be more severe, but so far it seems like companies are proceeding as normal, much to my surprise.

As to WSE 4.0 itself, I can only conclude that Luke Connell is attempting to reach outside the walls of Second Life, probably for at least two reasons. The first is that if he leaves Second Life and keeps the companies with him, he's outside the reach of Linden Lab's mighty ban hammer. The second reason is that he allows himself to list firms from other worlds, perhaps the Entropia Universe or IMVU. If it works, it could be amazing.

However, also I've got to wonder about the profitability of HCL at this point. We know HCL has defaulted twice on its bonds, and has had no income for 50-some days and counting. HCL owns an island with low occupancy, but tier still comes due, as well as a hefy (and ad-free, I believe) web server. According to the HCL income statements, HCL had L$8.3 million in profit (neglecting the L$2.78 million they owe in bond interest currently*) ending January 1, which is about USD$31,300. I'm not saying they're going bankrupt right away, but between all the expenses (who pays for Connell's RL expenses, anyway?) I've got to wonder if this conversion to WICs isn't just all smoke and mirrors to mitigate some deposit liabilities.

With no one demanding Linden dollars, who is to say what's happening to those dollars? While there may be an initial "dump the WICs" session, I imagine the WIC will be fairly illiquid. Some hefty transaction fees could make sure people keep their "game tokens" as WICs and not as Lindens, allowing Connell free use of all the Lindens deposited into the WSE.

But enough of the theories, I have a more important question to the CEOs of the WSE: Which of you will stand by a twice-defaulted exchange moving away from your primary transaction currency? Which of you will remain next to the CEO who has played a major role in the collapse of not one, but two of Second Life's major banking institutions? And how will you justify it to your investors?



*If anyone can explain to me how you can manage to post an L$8.3 million profit and yet not have L$2.8 million to pay your bondholders with, I'd love to hear that reasoning. Please include the mathematics behind it.

Saturday, February 23, 2008

The Depreciation of Trust

The SLW conversion is complete, and traders on SL CapEx are now fully capable of withdrawing Lindens from the sales of their stocks. Yet, much work remains to be done.

On the public relations front, the most pressing issue I can see is newbies who somehow have gone blindly throughout life with no comprehension whatsoever of how a stock market functions. They stumble in, rant about where their money is gone, are pointed to a news posting, and then slowly realize the truth of the matter: Their portfolio is now worth 55% of what it was when they were a happy JTF Bank customer (current SLW price is 0.55-ish).

This problem is compounded by the fact that many of these customers don't speak English as a first language or maybe even at all. I do not fault these people for being confused, as it's a complex enough topic to handle for native speakers like myself. CapEx has made a good effort in reaching out to these people, and I hope CEOs are doing the same. Verballis may be able to help.

However, now it is time to look at another issue of the conversion: Trust. Trust is a funny thing to talk about in the financial, economic, or mathematical sense of the word. It certainly has value, but yet how to value it remains a near mystery. The branch of study known as Game Theory delves into this topic in great detail by applying certain "games" that try to quantify trust into a dollar value. If you ever hear of someone looking for volunteers for a Game Theory study, sign up - you will most likely walk out of the room with cash.

SLW presents another interesting way to try to quantify trust. Arbitrage Wise has promised to pay L$1.03 for each share of SLW at some future date. He has not released a date when this can be expected to occur, however. So, the question then becomes, how much is a promised L$1.03 from Wise worth? As mentioned above, it is currently worth L$0.55.

The far more interesting thing to me, however, is that this value is decreasing. After its initial volatility, SLW appears to have established a downward trend of about L$0.03 per day. (To be fair, one day it did rise L$0.03, but then fell L$0.06 the next.)

The market is giving Wise an idea of how much time it will be willing to wait for him to bring new funds into the market. For former depositors, these shares represent forward contracts of L$1.03 with an unspecified settlement date. I believe what is causing them to increase is a perceived increase in the risk premium or settlement date of SLW, or both. (Note: If anyone would like me to go through the mathematics of this, let me know and I'll work up another Lessons of FM for it. Don't be afraid to ask - it's just too much for this post.) At present, the market appears to be losing faith in Wise's promise at a rate of about 5% per day.

What can be done to avoid this? Well, this post on the CapEx forums caught my eye. While I don't agree with the abrupt manner the request is presented in, I do agree with the premise: it's time for a show of financial power and honestly from Wise. L$100,000 would go a long way towards buying some faith back in SLW, as would a metric posted somewhere showing how many shares have been repurchased to date. Even better is the fact that with renewed faith will come new buyers, pushing the price up and getting the most vocal and impatient of the depositors out the door, which giving the shares to more patient and positive investors.

I await a price spike.

Saturday, February 16, 2008

SLW Conversion Commentary

On Wednesday night I contacted Bogart Beck about raising the upper-level circuit breakers on CapEx in expectation of heavy trading the following day. I was right.

I'm not gloating too much - it doesn't take a great leap of logic to see that people are scared of SLW and will hold on to just about any other security in order to get rid of the possibility of having them. That's what's pushing CapEx prices up currently. Investors aren't trading Linden dollars anymore - they're trading SLW shares for other shares, and trying to get the best rate they can. Although JTF/CapEx has fixed a price target of L$1.03 for SLW, investors clearly aren't buying that.

I closely watch the SLR stock price, so I'm going to use it for an example. For the past few months, it's been creeping up from L$0.50 to L$0.75, and throughout January has held pretty steady around L$0.75. Today, however, it hit L$1.20. That's an increase of 60%! To me, that's not an increase in the value of SLR, but rather a decrease in the value of SLW. Since we know the share value of SLW is supposed to be L$1.03, we can solve to find out what these traders are valuing SLW at (maximum):

L$0.75 / x = L$1.20

x = L$0.625

These buyers are putting the SLW value at less than L$0.63 each. Looks like the market is expecting a panic...but we already knew that. You can't even read the CapEx forums now without some head-in-the-sand noob screaming "I WNAT MY MONEYS BACK!!! NOW!!!" I even heard a trader in CapEx today claiming that he was going to buy some BTR in hopes of selling it quickly at L$75.00 each. Market forces quickly brought the ask prices back in line, dashing the hopes of this trader, but it still served as an example to me of how confused these traders can get.

But let's stop keeping pace with the market at this point. Let's step up our pace and think one or two steps ahead of the general traders. We know the market is expecting a crash, and I've heard several big players say that they'll happily buy up cheap SLW shares from these fools. I may even throw in a few lowball bid offers in hopes of downward spikes. Those big players may keep SLW above the catastropic predictions and calculations the market is currently generating.

Also, everything I can see says that people are already ditching their SLW - they're just doing it by buying other stocks. That shrinks the supply of SLW shares available from the most active traders, which is another upward thrust for SLW prices. I still think it'll fall below L$1.00 in a heartbeat, but maybe it won't go so low as the calculation above suggests.

These traders and bank depositors want their cash. I suspect they'll take a hit to get to it. But they're not holding SLW shares anymore - they're holding some of their favorite company, or maybe every company. Therefore, I expect the drop in prices to be more severe among other CapEx companies than SLW, at least after the major spikes stabilize. How severe? I'm not sure, but bargain investors will find a huge sale going on at the CapEx next week.

So how do you make money in this market? I've been placing high sell orders on all my stocks and I'm preparing to hold SLW shares until prices stabilize. All orders should be canceled at the conversion, so there is no harm in placing them. Once SLW prices are steady, it should just be a matter of cashing out.

Unless, of course, something unexpected happens.

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Well, the secret's out and nobody cares...

So, I must first apologize for my extended absence. The fact of the matter is that my partner of almost 6 years was hospitalized with a drug allergy and staph infection this last week and, as Guardian Market likes to say... "RL > SL."

Last night I got an interesting call on my RL cell phone. I was in front of the television watching "Tin Man" on the Sci-Fi Channel.

I did not pick up (I screen my calls), but I found it interesting that it was a Dallas, Texas telephone number. I only know one person in Dallas.......



I knew it had to be serious if it really was him... considering he could not wait for me to come online. I immediately rushed to my office and logged in to Gmail. BOOM! Gtalk message from Arbitrage Wise... "Xavier!"

It was him that called... we had a situation. Well, he thought so anyways.

For the record, I have known about JuiceTrading.com for a while. It was a secret shared to me in confidence. I really saw no problem with it, and was happy to know there was in fact a real-world outlet for JT Financial, and that the interest our depositors were earning was actually backed by profit... it wasn't just unreasonable numbers in a MySQL database as I suspect is the case with a few banks.

I was not the only person that knew... by any means. I had talked privately with others that mentioned JT to me first. Some had a problem with it, most didn't. I was never a fan of this being a "secret," but as we now see there was no real reason for anyone to be concerned.

In any event, as Arb and I continued talking in Gmail he forwarded a release to me... it was a disclosure about Juice Trading and Sports Arbitrage. I formatted it, added a rough title, and put it up on SLR. We sent out group notices and proceeded to "spill the beans."

I still hadn't really read it... I had totally skipped over the failed blackmail attempt. I have a few problems with that - to say the least.

But the bottom line is that the first 24 hours in any crisis are really the most critical. JT Financial has not had a bank run, has not received any negative comments that I know of, and the CapEx forums don't seem to be buzzing about Juice Trading as I thought they would be.

Isegrim Nikolaidis is the only person to start a thread so far about Juice Trading, and it is more of a parody about the failed blackmail than anything else.

It's nice to see that nobody really cares. If nothing else, I see where Arbitrage Associates, LLC has garnered a ton of exposure with this forced disclosure, and JT depositors now know that there is at least some real-world credibility to the interest that they are being paid.

My prediction is that in a week this entire situation is forgotten and newbies continue to ask JTF staff, "How do you pay interest?" Only difference is that now they can provide an accurate answer without the fear of disclosing a company secret. :)

We'll see.

Xavier Mohr

Sunday, November 18, 2007

JTF, CapEx, SLR, and Xavier Mohr

Well considering I cannot get to sleep right now, I figured it would be a great opportunity for me to test-drive Guardian Market's new Second Chaos blog.

I figured there's no better subject to start off with than my affiliations and perceived positions with JT Financial Bank, the SL Capital Exchange, and SL Reports (CapEx: SLR).

I receive the question time and again from random people if I have quit JTF and CapEx, if I have had some form of "falling-out" with the management and so forth. The answers to those respectively are "kind-of" and "no."

I do not work as much as I used to with JT Financial or CapEx. There are several reasons for this.

Primarily, the duties were simply too much for me at a time when I was having stress with my real-life job, and at a time that I should have been focusing on SL Reports.

I have recently quit my real life job - a nightmare publishing position that started out as one thing and evolved into something else far more stressful over the course of 2+ years - it's something I might tell you about later in a different post.

In my exit from real-life work, I considered approaching Arbitrage Wise - a fabulous long-time friend and owner of SLCX and SLR, among many other fine companies - about working more for CapEx and JTF again... but I didn't.

The reason was I started waking up every morning and loading SLR on my screen. I started realizing that we had loyal readers and investors waiting on me to do things I had promised long ago but failed to follow through with.

Now, do I think that I was lazy... that I screwed up... that I wasted time that I should have been spending on SLR? All of those months that I was wrapped up in the bank, Wise Metaverse, and the exchange? No, I don't.

I am rarely arrogant, and I rarely boast, but take this for what it is - defense of my actions. I feel like I made a difference in our SL financial community.

For those of you that don't know, in July of this year Investor Allen started requiring real-life ID from CEOs. I complied grudgingly, even though my on-again-off-again friend who we now know as "Kyle Van Leuven" assurred me I didn't need to, but the owner of SLR, Arbitrage Wise, would not provide his info to Allen - I guess now we see where he was justified in his distrust of Allen, which is neither here nor there.

For the record though we now know Thanh (pronounced 'tawn' so I hear) Ho quite well, with him having spoke at Southern Methodist University and on Metaversed's Metanomics. But anyway...

Allen mentioned to me one late evening because of Arb's failure to comply, SLR would need to be delisted from AVIX. I really did not care at that point, but I did contact Arb and let him know. It's funny though... when Allen threatened this to me, I went off... totally... I told him exactly what I thought about his failed Ginko buyout, his own ID issues, and probably some other things I would not remember without pulling up IM logs... which I cannot publish here.

But Allen did not respond hatefully. He responded as a tired and upset young man... probably the same as I would... probably feeling much the same way I felt... like he just didn't care and didn't want to deal with it. It was at that point I asked him, "Allen, would you consider selling AVIX to JTF?"

He replied positively, and at that point I messaged Arb and said, "Arb, would you be interested in buying AVIX?"

LOL...

The rest is history, but at that time... for me... it was "ID problem solved, delisting problem solved, and software development for our own JTF exchange problem solved."

I was involved with JTF & CapEx on throughout July, August, & September before my real life caved in around me. SLR was a site in need of major assistance, I was stressed out all the time with work in RL, work in SL, and I was at the breaking point. Some of you know, and some of you do not... that I almost followed the footsteps Jasper by simply logging off. But I didn't.

I simply started stepping back, taking breaks from SL... managing things from the sidelines. It helped. I remained involved.

Yes, there were arguments along the way - bad ones. Ones that in your wildest dreams you could not imagine. Not just with me, but with all of the CapEx staff... but they were part of us building a better exchange for the SL investing public. And I think our arguments... our negotiations... did a fine job.

I am proud of what CapEx has become. I am proud of the new ID policies, the more careful review of IPOs, the new fraud detection mechanisms, the circuit breakers, the market makers... everything.

Bottom line though is the drama I have been through has nothing to do with why I stepped back from that world. CapEx now has a fine staff: Bo, Arb, Reina, Kadena, Cash, Sky, all the reps and managers you see in-world, and all the affiliates out in the field. They can manage without me.

I still randomly comment on IPO applications and receive faxes for the exchange, but not much else. And it's because I know they are a top-notch bunch with the brains and brut strength to get the job done.

So what's with SLR? Well I am happy to report that traffic is extraordinary... every morning when I wake up I update the SL community with the latest market news, and even an editorial every once in a while... be it popular or not.

I am proud to have just interviewed IntLibber "officially" about ACE... a great article. I talk to him often usually complaining about some random thing because I know he will listen and he is too nice to tell me to "eff off." I guess this is our first official press thing together though.

But the ACE interview is just the first in a series about all the exchanges. I will also be profiling CapEx, ISE, VSTEX.net, and WSE. Guardian even mentioned that I should profile Anshe's DSE... we'll see (that might be interesting though).

SLR is going well. But how about me?

Guys, I don't promise to be here forever. I have screwed up in the past of defining my first life by my Second Life, and I don't want to get back into that habit. I do have a real life. That is one reason that I *know* my real name shows up on this blog, yet I keep it here... to remind me there is something more out there.

I love to travel, I love to shop and dine, watch movies, do real life work... and this time of year... I love to drive around Northwest Oklahoma City looking at Christmas lights with my partner of five years.

So what is my immediate future in SL? SL Reports will continue to grow and prosper, we have even talked about overhauling our web template. Traffic will keep growing. So will revenue.

After that, who knows? I can't lie... my eyes and ears are always open, searching for someone to take over as SLR CEO. I continue to search, for someone that can do a better job than I have... but also continue on with my dream and my work, which I feel have made a difference here.

I doubt I will ever totally leave SL. I will probably always be the loudmouth with an opinion on something. I will probably still write and comment on stuff around CapEx, SLR, SLNN, and everywhere else. I definitely plan to continue blogging at Second Chaos. I am proud of that... which brings me to our closing.

I will leave you with just a couple thoughts tonight. First is that no matter what you do in SL, always endeavor to make a difference... don't do what's popular if you know in your heart that something else is the right choice. Second, is that remember Second Life is always just that... a SECOND LIFE. Don't define who you are by what happens here. Remember that you have a family that loves you and a world of opportunity awaiting you outside your front door.

Make a difference in your Second Life, but enjoy your first.

Until Next Time,

Xavier Mohr, CEO
SLReports.net
Google